Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 28.893011 30.907148 33.083132 35.625447 38.536277 41.792376 45.749917
2025-10-26 26.464574 29.283019 32.525323 36.595244 41.665373 47.918036 56.465383
2025-11-02 24.679225 27.871197 31.688698 36.709411 43.338046 52.122156 65.319532
2025-11-09 22.825092 26.115617 30.151342 35.627309 43.155165 53.669280 70.676905
2025-11-16 21.313060 24.625394 28.766189 34.522388 42.694894 54.617657 75.192450
2025-11-23 20.701235 24.201502 28.679908 35.095356 44.587069 59.259798 87.002412
2025-11-30 19.940357 23.519285 28.179780 35.013760 45.463367 62.414949 97.184337
2025-12-07 19.166762 22.765645 27.518429 34.620841 45.781813 64.652851 106.342051
2025-12-14 18.088864 21.550136 26.149029 33.078521 44.100614 63.090541 106.543960
2025-12-21 17.647763 21.166971 25.907230 33.185431 45.091354 66.538170 120.091106
2025-12-28 17.327246 20.927326 25.845718 33.548462 46.534764 71.118890 139.292187
2026-01-04 16.687585 20.219075 25.075398 32.751540 45.879626 71.342129 145.902220
2026-01-11 16.241070 19.837390 24.865854 33.005824 47.461672 77.412933 180.439434
2026-01-18 15.959001 19.681611 24.992191 33.845004 50.338993 87.697851 253.548031
2026-01-25 15.521763 19.272892 24.701112 33.944910 51.797297 95.205375 341.920724
2026-02-01 14.874903 18.527759 23.848931 33.001655 50.985409 96.289922 393.682495
2026-02-08 14.274155 17.823842 23.022101 32.035534 49.995058 96.591874 446.239522
2026-02-15 14.054223 17.666049 23.030586 32.536911 52.224698 107.838189 790.170129
2026-02-22 13.725718 17.331130 22.738163 32.465561 53.172820 115.534126 1459.411835
2026-03-01 13.363354 16.930170 22.318012 32.121744 53.436435 121.008253 3241.074996
2026-03-08 12.814553 16.231158 21.389540 30.768377 51.129379 115.443444 2878.180711
2026-03-15 12.592113 16.016999 21.235357 30.862385 52.344432 125.107069 NaN
2026-03-22 12.427038 15.882506 21.202225 31.181388 54.178212 139.144701 NaN